NiMet Forecasts Variable Rainfall, Prolonged Dry Spells, Warmer Temperatures in 2026
The Nigerian Meteorological Agency (NiMet) has unveiled the 2026 Seasonal Climate Prediction (SCP), warning of variable rainfall patterns, prolonged dry spells, a severe August Break in some parts of the country, and generally warmer temperatures across Nigeria.
The presentation, held on Tuesday in Abuja, featured stakeholder engagement attended by government officials, policymakers, farmers, aviation operators, disaster managers, development partners, private sector players and the media.
Presenting highlights of the 2026 SCP, Festus Keyamo, minister of aviation and aerospace development, cautioned against interpreting early rains already observed in parts of the country as the onset of the rainy season, advising farmers and rainfall dependent users to rely on NiMet’s predicted onset dates.
According to the forecast, early onset of rainfall is expected in Bayelsa, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Cross River, Benue, Kogi, Nasarawa, Oyo, and parts of Kebbi, Niger, Jigawa, Katsina, Kano, Adamawa and Taraba States, while late onset is anticipated in Borno State.
Rainfall cessation is expected to occur earlier than normal in parts of Ogun, Osun, Ondo, Imo, Rivers, Akwa Ibom, Kogi and Niger States, while a delayed end of season is projected for Lagos, Ogun, Anambra, Enugu, Cross River, Benue, Nasarawa and Kaduna States.
A longer-than-normal rainy season is predicted for Lagos, Benue, Enugu, Ebonyi, Ogun, Oyo, Nasarawa, Anambra, Kwara, Kebbi, Kaduna, Gombe and Taraba States, while parts of Borno, Yobe and Niger States may experience a shorter-than-normal season.
NiMet also projects normal annual rainfall amounts across most parts of the country, with above-normal rainfall expected in Borno, Sokoto, Kebbi, Kaduna, Enugu, Cross River, Abia, Ebonyi, Akwa Ibom and the Federal Capital Territory, while below-normal rainfall is anticipated in parts of Katsina, Zamfara, Kwara, Oyo and Ogun States.
The forecast further warns of severe dry spells exceeding 15 days between March and May in parts of Oyo and Ogun States, as well as dry spells of up to 21 days during the June, July and August period across several northern and central states.
The Little Dry Season, the August Break, is expected to begin by late July and may be severe and prolonged over Lagos, Ogun, Ekiti and parts of Oyo States.
Additionally, both daytime and nighttime temperatures are predicted to be warmer than the longterm average over most parts of the country in January, February, March and May 2026.
In his remarks, the Director-General of NiMet, Prof. Charles Anosike, reaffirmed the Agency’s commitment to providing authoritative, science based climate information to support informed planning in Nigeria’s changing climate.
Prof. Anosike disclosed that NiMet is proactively adopting emerging technologies, including the integration of Artificial Intelligence into forecasting operations, to enhance accuracy and service delivery. He also called for stronger partnerships with state governments and other stakeholders to further downscale the SCP to farmers and local communities.
